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East Europe & Eurasia


2010 Status of the Great Commission in Eastern Europe Print E-mail
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2010 Status of Eastern Europe

July 12, 2010

in Analysis

Eastern Europe (Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine) has one of the largest landmasses of any region in the world. Russia is the largest country in the world, and Ukraine is the second largest in Europe. The region is rich in resources, with farmland, timber, oil and rare metals. It is also prone to earthquakes and landslides, and the remoteness and cold make it difficult to utilize these resources or bring them to markets. Heavy industrialization has led to significant soil, water and air pollution. The whole region was affected by the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, but most notably Ukraine and Belorussia (over 20% of the latter was contaminated).

For its size, the region is one of the least populated. About 315 million people lived here in 2000, but no longer: not a single Eastern European country has a growing population. All are aging and in decline. In 2010 the total regional population was estimated at 290 million. By 2025 the population will likely fall to 225 million: ahead of the rest of Europe but smaller than most African, Asian or American regions. Two-thirds live in urban areas: there are nearly 600 mega-cities but their numbers, too, will likely decline.

Part of the problem is the regional economy. All of the nations have made the transition from communism to market economies, some better than others. While most of the economies are growing, and some are becoming players in the global economy, poverty and unemployment are still widespread. Moldavia remains one of the poorest countries in all of Europe. Over 75 million people in the region live in poverty, many more are poor and underemployed, and hunger and homelessness are readily seen on the streets. Eastern Europe produces just 7% of Europe’s total GNP.

Government corruption and instability–both so common as to be accepted without question–contribute to the economic challenges. Russia’s governments have been typified by strong, autocratic if not dictatorial leadership for centuries. The smaller countries have governments that are barely stable, although many are becoming more so. Crime is rampant. The combination of these many problems frightens would-be investors. The ongoing warfare in Chechnya only adds to the darkness of the mix.

AIDS is a silent threat, with significant epidemics in Bulgaria, Russia and Ukraine. Far more visible are the cankers of drug addiction and alcoholism.

This region’s religious climate experienced one of the most dramatic swings during the past century of any worldwide, caused by the 1910 Communist revolution, the 80 year suppression of all religious believers under Communist rule, and then the dramatic new freedoms followed by the collapse of Communism in the 1990s. Despite this, the non-religious remain a significant part of the region (estimated at about 7%). Islam is growing: having risen to 6% of the population (thus nearly equaling the numbers of atheists and agnostics). Jews in the region, once numbering 5% of the population in the early part of the century, have now fallen to less than 1% as most have emigrated to Israel.

The overwhelming majority of the population claim to be Christian of one variety or another. Most belong, if only in name, to the Orthodox or Catholic churches, but Independent and Marginal churches are the fastest-growing. Religious apathy, defections from the faith and inter-traditional rivalries are common. Few are interested in mission to other nations, although there are some indications this is changing. At the same time, although the numbers of nonreligious have fallen, they are still present, and there are a growing number of Muslim immigrants.

In most of the countries, there is significant personal religious freedom and widespread work marred by instances of persecution caused by the efforts of one or two dominant religions to remain dominant. Russia, in particular, is seeing a recurring chilling of religious freedom particularly for smaller groups like Baptists.

By 2025, it is presently unlikely that the religious situation will have dramatically changed. The number of believers will likely be smaller, due to the overall population decline.

Name Pop Growth Chr Growth Issues
Belarus 9.5 7.0 Poverty, Chernobyl contamination, influence by Russia
Bulgaria 7.4 6.2 Economic growth, corruption, crime, openness.
Czech Republic 10.1 5.8 Strategic position, stable economy, openness, apathy.
Hungary 9.9 8.6 Economic growth, openness, leader development.
Moldova 3.7 3.5 Extreme poverty, agriculture, some restrictions.
Poland 37.9 36.5 Poverty, unemployment, pollution, Catholic vs. Evangelical tensions.
Romania 21.1 20.8 Poverty, corruption, some restrictions, renewal movements.
Russia 140.3 115.1 Erosion of democracy, stagnant economy, AIDS, migrants, poverty, war, Islam.
Slovakia 5.3 4.6 Growing economy, unemployment, religious openness, lack of vision.
Ukraine 45.1 37.9 Stabilizing government, growing economy, long Christian heritage.

Populations in millions. Pop. Growth: Red=Decline, Green=Growth. Christian Growth. 1st Square: Red=Decline, Green=Growth. 2nd Square: Red=Declining share of population; Green=Growing share of population.

 

From JustinLong.org


 
2010 Status of the Great Commission in Russia Print E-mail
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2010 Status of Russia

July 19, 2010

in Analysis

Russia is the focus country for Eastern Europe (which we covered last week). It is the largest country in the world, spanning all of Asia and nearly half of Europe, and is the world’s largest in terms of forest reserves, minerals, and energy resources. Its lakes contain nearly a quarter of the world’s fresh water. Yet although it has such massive resources and is in fact the world’s 9th most populous country, it is only very sparsely populated with a density of about 23 people per square mile, most of whom live to the west of the Ural mountains. Moreover, this sparse population is presently on the decline. Residents in the eastern regions of Russia have in particular dropped by 25%.

Russia has been hurt in the current global economic climate, but it still an influential player and part of the so-called “BRICs” (Brazil, Russia, India, China). These are the four largest economies outside of the rich OECD, and the only developing economies with annual GDPs of over $1 trillion. Yet Russia’s crumbling infrastructure and imploding population mean it cannot adequately exploit the resources it claims to own. Russia’s economy is presently centered largely around energy: Gazprom, its natural gas company, is both a source of revenue and a political weapon. Russia is quite willing to turn off energy supplies to Europe in order to negotiate what it wants.

The government itself is no longer Communist but still autocratic. It’s perhaps not surprising: Russia hasn’t known anything but autocracy since its birth. The nation seems to prefer “strong” leadership. The government has been expanding its security powers, yet many businesses are afraid of being victims of corrupt officials.

Though we perhaps have forgotten it today, Russia became Christian very early in its history. It was founded sometime between the 3rd and 8th centuries by the descendants of Viking warriors who settled in Kiev and adopted Orthodox Christianity in 988. For a time Russia was considered the “Third Jerusalem” and the center of Christianity from which thousands of Orthodox missionaries were sent out.

After the October 1917 revolution, much of Christianity was heavily suppressed. Orthodox Christianity, long the dominant form in Russia, had its numbers cut nearly in half after decades of harassment. Despite this persecution, tens of millions of Christians remained public with their faith. After the fall of Communism, numerous missionaries swept in with unfortunately little regard for or understanding of the existing indigenous Christians (Catholic, Orthodox, Baptists, in some 470 denominations as of AD 2000). Today there remains much missionary work by dozens of agencies, but it is being hampered by increasing restrictions on their activity. At the same time, there has been a surge in Muslim affiliation. Dagestan, for example, is already majority Muslim.

Russia today is a World B (non-Christian but heavily evangelized) country. There are 83 unevangelized people groups in the country, with 6.5 million people in them, as well as 6 unevangelized cities and 2 unevangelized provinces. A minimum of 65 new pioneer missionary outreach centers, each able to raise up local ministries, are needed. That doesn’t count additional work amongst the 34 heavily evangelized but majority non-Christian peoples, or work needed amongst those who profess to follow Christ yet are highly nominal.

Related articles

For Russia’s distrastrous demographic decline:
Population Reference Bureau’s analysis
BBC on Putin’s comments
Dire predictions of Russian breakup
2003 East-West Church & Ministry Report
Europe-Asia Studies, 2005, on the Public Reaction

At expense of all others, Putin picks a church (NYT). “Just as the government has tightened control over political life, so, too, has it intruded in matters of faith… The close alliance between the government and the Russian Orthodox Church has become a defining characteristic of Mr Putin’s tenure…”

Fear takes over Russia’s businesses. Russia’s entrepreneurs are increasingly afraid of being victims of corrupt officials, facing the risk of extortion, confiscation or jail.

Russia has reasons to stay its hand (AsiaTimes). “The Russian Federation is more than capable of defending its interests
in the former Soviet space… but it will not act beyond what is absolutely necessary to preserve its dominance. It is this strategic decision to lie quiet that many analysts have
confused with frailty.”

Why the Russia Spy Story really matters (Radio Free Europe). ”Moscow is skillfully advancing its interests in the West, not through intelligence but business, often supported by crafty industrial espionage, influence-buying, and under-the-table deal-making.”

Russia rises to the challenge as foreign missionaries are pressured (Mission Network News). ”[This situation] empowers the local believers. It enables them not to be dependent on outside resources or people. It enables them to really take hold of it themselves.”

Orthodox priest gunned down in Moscow church (Persecuted Church weblog, 2009). “Fr. Daniil Sysoyev, a Russian Orthodox priest well known for his missionary activities among Muslims, occultists and others, was shot an killed in the St. Thomas the Apostle Church in Moscow on Thursday evening. The killer reportedly entered the church, asked for the priest by name, and then opened fire at close range with a pistol.”

Wave of clergy killings in Russia (International Christian Concern). “The priest was killed because he was not indifferent to disgusting human behavior and took a principled stand against it in accordance with his calling…”

Draft legislation threatens to make evangelism nearly impossible (Mission Network News). But it was questioned whether the legislation would hold up to a constitutional challenge.

The difficulty of Orthodox evangelism (Khanya blog). Analysis of an interesting account of Orthodox evangelism and some of the attendant difficulties.

Christians become ghostlike with increased Muslim influence in Russia (Voice of the Martyrs Canada). “In Russia’s Northern Caucasus, bordered by Chechnya to the west, evangelical believers in Dagestan have become almost ghostlike, and what ministry they are doing is facing increased restrictions…”

 

From JustinLong.org


 
Albania Print E-mail
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Albania

August 2, 2010

in Analysis

Albania is the focus country for Southern Europe (which we covered last week). It is a small country on the Adriatic Sea just east of Greece. Three quarters of the land is ruggedly mountainous and often inaccessible from the outside. The climate varies from fairly mild on the ocean side to cold and snowy mountains.Albania is home to about 3.6 million people. Nearly half live in Albania’s cities (600,000 in the capital, Tirane); the rest live in rural areas. Albania is rapidly urbanizing: people are moving into the cities four times faster than the population growth. The country is home to 13 people groups, of which 2 are unreached (small numbers of Chinese and Jews) and the remaining groups have significant works among them. Most of the population are Gheg or Tosk Albanians, with very small churches and Islamic majorities.

Albania was Christianized quite early on, while it was ruled by the Byzantine Empire. The nation remained under Byzantine and Bulgarian control until the 14th century. It was captured by the Ottoman empire in the mid-1400s but the people remained largely Christian. After an abortive rebellion in the late 1400s, the Ottoman empire took complete control, and by the 17th and 18th centuries there were mass conversions to Islam. These conversions enabled one to access the Ottoman trade network, gain a position in the government or join the army.

Albania became independent from the Ottoman empire after the Balkan War in 1912. After World War I, it was ruled by the government of King Zog during a period of stability. It was invaded by Italy during World War II. Afterward Enver Hoxha took control and ruled as absolute dictator until 1985. Religious observance was suppressed and the country was officially declared to be the world’s first atheist state. During his rule, Albania was first an ally of the Soviet Union. After the death of Stalin, Albania became strongly allied with China. However, that alliance too would dissolve after the death of Mao Zedong. Albania became more and more isolated, ruled by the iron fist of Hoxha. After his death in 1985, the new regime introduced liberalizing reforms and led to a new openness and a transition to a market economy.

Albania has gone through a period in which it was terribly isolated. The combined effect of war, 46 years of Marxism and the chaotic Balkan wars of the 1990s made it one of the poorest countries in Europe. Economic life is almost wholly dependent on the money sent home by Albanians living abroad, and the average income per person within Albania is about $670/year (about $2/day).

Traditionally, some 70% of Albanians are Muslims, 20% Orthodox Christians, and 10% Catholics. Since the 1990s there has been a significant influx of missionary activity. Aside from Catholic and Orthodox activity (which are considerable, but not yet fully catalogued by us), some 45 mission agencies are at work within the nation. The Albanian Encouragement Project is a long-term network supporting church planting. Numerous Baptist agencies have numbers of cross-cultural workers and national pastors at work. (Interestingly, ABCUSA has deployed Brazilian missionaries to Albania.) The Assemblies of God began doing Scripture distribution in the 1960s, and today has a Bible college training new leaders. Likewise, the European Christian Mission began its work with radio broadcasts in 1968 and upon the opening of Albania began supporting church planting works in several cities. There are numerous relief and development projects, as well as microfinance and microenterprise initiativies (note CRY, ADRA, and Oosteuropa Zending). OM has over a dozen workers focused mostly on rural ministries (the urban cities are more heavily evangelized by local churches but less has seeped out into rural areas). Campus Crusade has over 60 workers in a widespread ministry to students. YWAM is also quite large, with 45 workers in 8 locations. This of course is a small recount of some encouraging news.

Still much remains to be done. The church in Albania makes up just a third of the population, and the evangelical portion of this is quite small. While there are probably at least 400 cross-cultural workers laboring on Albania’s behalf, much remains to be done. The long-term training of leaders and the strategic response to Albania’s economic needs will be critical for the future of Christianity in this land.

Related articles

A tooth for a tooth: in certain precincts of Albania, where familial ties still mean everything, minor grudges have a way of spiraling out of control.

OM Albania’s web site features information about Albania as well as what OM’ers are doing.

The ministry of the European Christian Mission in Albania.

World Vision’s work in Albania.

The Orthodox Church in America is sending missionaries to Albania.

 

From JustinLong.org